According to a recent survey by The Wall Street Journal, U.S. crude-oil inventories are likely to see a decline for the first time in seven weeks. This can be attributed to U.S. refiners increasing their capacity use after the fall maintenance season.
Decrease in Stocks
Analysts and traders estimate that commercial crude stockpiles will decrease by approximately 1 million barrels, bringing the total to 448.7 million barrels by the week ending December 1st. Despite the decrease, stocks will still be 8.4% higher compared to the same period last year.
Mixed Expectations
The survey reveals a range of expectations among respondents, with eight predicting a reduction in inventories and two expecting an increase. The estimates for inventory change range from a draw of 3 million barrels to a build of 2 million barrels.
Inventory Data Release
The U.S. Energy Information Administration is scheduled to release the official inventory data at 10:30 a.m. EST on Wednesday.
Gasoline and Distillates
Gasoline inventories are projected to increase by 700,000 barrels, reaching a total of 218.9 million barrels. Estimates for gasoline inventory change vary from an increase of 4.5 million barrels to a decrease of 3 million.
On the other hand, stocks of distillates, mainly diesel fuel, are expected to rise by 1 million barrels, following a significant buildup of 5.2 million barrels the previous week. Forecasts for distillates range from an increase of 3.5 million to a decrease of 3 million barrels.
Refinery Capacity Use
Refinery capacity use is predicted to rise by 0.8 percentage points to 90.6%, marking the fourth consecutive weekly increase. The forecasts for capacity use range from a half percentage-point increase to a 1.5 percentage-point increase. Not all analysts provided a forecast.
Crude | Gasoline | Distillates | Refinery Use :---:|:---:|:---:|:---: -1.0 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.8
Note: Numbers are in millions of barrels, except for refinery use, which is in percentage points.
