Wheat for December delivery experienced a 1.9% drop to $6.25 1/4 per bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade on Friday. Traders took measures to reorganize their positions in anticipation of potential developments in the Black Sea export corridor or Russian aggression during the weekend.
Corn for December delivery also saw a slight decline of 0.3% to $4.86 per bushel.
In contrast, soybeans for November delivery witnessed a 1.1% increase, reaching $13.87 per bushel.
Abundance of Caution
Towards the end of the trading session, both corn and wheat futures succumbed to pressure. Traders positioned themselves ahead of the weekend, preparing for potential positive news emerging from the Black Sea Region while the markets are closed. Arlan Suderman, a representative from StoneX, highlighted the significant role these headlines could play in affecting corn and wheat futures. The recent strikes on Ukrainian ports and grain infrastructure have already influenced wheat futures, and the passing of Yevgeny Prigozhin, a member of Wagner Group, has further contributed to heightened volatility in trading.
On the other hand, soybean futures experienced an upward trend due to indications of increased export demand directed towards the United States. Additionally, concerns about current weather conditions negatively impacting final U.S. soybean production contributed to elevated futures. Charlie Sernatinger from Marex noted that the forecasts did not show the required moisture for soybeans to reach their full potential. In the morning, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) reported a new flash sale of soybean exports to China for 121,000 metric tons, with delivery set for the 2023/24 marketing year.
Variable Picture: Mixed Results from Pro Farmer's Midwest Crop Tour
Pro Farmer's Midwest Crop Tour has reached its final day, and the findings have been a mix of highs and lows. Crop scouts have discovered that yields in northern Iowa are lower compared to the same time last year, as are the yields in southern Minnesota. This has had a substantial impact on prices throughout the day.
Downward Slide in Crop Output
After a week of meticulously surveying farmer's fields across the Corn Belt, Pro Farmer predicts that crop output will fall below the current government estimates. Following the conclusion of the Midwest Crop Tour, national corn production is projected to be 14.96 billion bushels, while soybean production is estimated at 4.11 billion bushels. Unfortunately, both figures are lower than the most recent estimates provided by the Department of Agriculture. Corn yields are expected to average 172 bushels per acre, with soybean yields forecasted at 49.7 bushels per acre. These figures are expected to have a significant impact on trading in the upcoming week.
Upcoming Reports and Releases
Several reports and releases from various organizations will provide further insights into the industry:
- The USDA will release its weekly grains export inspections report on Monday at 11 a.m. ET.
- The USDA will also release its weekly crop progress report on Monday at 4 p.m. ET.
- The EIA is set to release its weekly ethanol production and stocks report on Wednesday at 10:30 a.m. ET.
It is important for industry professionals to stay updated with these reports to make informed decisions.