The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) remains optimistic about its ability to control inflation and bring it back within the desired range of 2% to 3% by the end of 2025.
According to the RBA's latest forecasts, the annual inflation rate is projected to be at 2.75% by the end of 2025. The central bank expects consumer price pressures to cool rapidly throughout 2024, reaching a rate of 3.25% by the end of that year.
After peaking at over 8.0% in 2022, inflation has since eased to 6.0% in the second quarter of this year.
The RBA stated in its latest monetary policy update on Friday that it views the risks around the inflation rate as being broadly balanced.
Compared to its statement three months ago, the RBA has tempered its economic outlook. In May, it emphasized that there was little tolerance for any further increase in inflation.
The updated outlook aligns with the RBA's decision to keep interest rates unchanged for the second consecutive month during its recent policy meeting. However, the statement also acknowledges the potential need for further tightening of monetary policy to ensure inflation returns to the target range.
The RBA's overall message is clear: they are committed to managing inflation and will take necessary action based on data and risk assessments.
Economic Outlook
The central bank has projected a soft landing for the economy, with annual gross domestic product (GDP) growth expected to slow to around 1.0% in 2023. However, there are indications of a gradual recovery in the following years.
Unemployment Rate
The unemployment rate, currently at a 50-year low of 3.5%, is anticipated to rise to approximately 4.5% by the end of 2024. It is then expected to stabilize at this level.
Inflation Projection
The RBA's preferred measure of inflation, the trimmed mean inflation, is forecasted to run at an annual rate of 3.0% by the end of 2024. This is half the current rate of 6.0%.
Balancing Costs and Inflation
While energy and labor costs are expected to increase in the medium term, the RBA believes that falling goods price inflation will offset these escalations. Global supply-chain pressures are predicted to decrease rapidly, contributing to this decline.
Impact of Rate Hikes and Demand
Economic data from the second quarter suggests that inflation is cooling faster than anticipated. Retail sales volumes have contracted for three consecutive quarters. This data supports the notion that the RBA's rate hikes over the past year have effectively curbed demand and reduced inflation.
Monetary Policy and Future Rate Hikes
An increasing number of market economists predict that there will be no need for further tightening of policy reins by the RBA. They estimate that the official cash rate will remain at 4.1%. However, there are still some lingering risks to inflation, particularly if wage pressures continue to rise.
Long-term Effects of Interest Rate Increases
The RBA acknowledges that the full effects of the interest rate increases on demand, the labor market, and inflation have yet to be seen, given the typical lags of monetary policy.
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